用灰色系统理论分析南京东郊岩溶水源地地下水动态

ANALYSIS ON GROUNDWATER REGIME OF A KARST WATER SOURCE AREA BY USE OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY

以灰色关联分析的方法对地下水动态进行研究是可行的,能为水源地地下水动态的控制指出方向,为地下水资源的合理开发、利用提供科学依据。

The analysis of grey system theory can he realized through calculating the correlation degree and the correlation coefficient. Based on the similarity between curves of mother- factor and son- factor, the correlativity can be obtained. In an area of eastern suberb water source. Nanjing city, the groundwater regime has been taken as mother-factor, other 6 elements such as the precipitation have been taken as Son-factors, and then, analysis and estimation have been conducted by grey system theory.The results show that: (1)The source water has a close hydraulic connection in behavior. (2) The correlativity is obvious between regimes of groundwater and precipitation. Precipitation is the main supplementary source of groundwater. (3) The current extraction of ground water still has no evident effect on regional groundwater level. To sum up, the hydrogeological condition and the climate feature are main factors controlling local groundwater regime. The effect of man-made factor is getting more important as the development of water source, which will bring out the problems on environment and engineering geology. We should take counter measures in advance. The applied example has shown that it is feasible to use the grey system theory to analyse groundwater regime. The application of grey system theory has some particular advantages which can point out the direction for controlling groundwater regime and provide scientific basis for reasonable development and use of groundwater resources.