粮食生产影响因素的灰色关联动态分析

GREY DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION AND FACTORS IN JINING

根据1949～2001年济宁市(不包括泗水、汶上、梁山)各县(市、区)的统计资料,分析了53年来粮食生产的发展变化历程.并进一步以1978～2001年济宁市12个县(市、区)的统计资料为基础,运用灰色系统理论,对影响济宁市粮食生产的诸因素进行关联动态分析,从定量的角度考察了粮食产量与诸因子的关联程度.指出了粮食单产、劳动力、有效灌溉面积、耕地面积和播种面积是影响济宁市粮食生产的最主要因素,并提出粮食生产可持续发展的基本对策,为解决济宁市粮食产量持续稳定增长提供了理论依据.

Based on the grain production data from 1949 to 2001 and agriculture statistical data from 1978 to 2001 in Jining, the grain production and factors are analyzed by the grey system theory method. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The grain production took on an increasing trend on the whole. (2) Per unit area grain yield, laborer, effective irrigated area, arable area and grain sown area are the most important factors that affect grain production. (3) Moreover, the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain are presented such as relying on scientific progress to increase per unit area grain yield, strengthening capital construction of farmland, setting up the control and evaluation system on arable, developing ecological agriculture.