甘肃地质灾害气象等级预报研究

Study of the Geological Calamity Meteorological Grade Prediction in Gansu Province

利用甘肃省近40a地质灾害相关资料,介绍了甘肃省地质灾害的现状、地理分布特征和发生地质灾害的特点,阐明暴雨等气象因素是诱导甘肃地质灾害的主要因素,研究了甘肃省地质灾害气象预报的方法,建立了地质灾害气象预报的初步模式,并利用甘肃省2003年地质灾害实况进行效果检验,发现准确率达到73.3%以上,证明其预报模式具有一定的预报能力。

Based on the geological calamity relevant materials of the past 40 years in Gansu province, the current situations, geographical distribution characteristic of geological calamity and its happening characteristic in Gansu were introduced. It also demonstrated that the meteorological factors such as hard rain etc, are the main factors leading geological calamity in Gansu. The prediction method of geological calamity was given out and the preliminary prediction mode was set up as well, and its effect was examined by using geological calamity which was actually happening in 2003 in Gansu province, found that the rate of accuracy reaches more than 73%, it proved that the prediction mode has certain prediction ability.