我国震例前兆异常统计特征和应用研究

The statistic property of earthquakes in China and the prediction application research

进行了我国大陆80多个震例(1987～1999年)的前兆异常项数统计,研究了强震前流体、形变和电磁三大观测类别的前兆异常项的时空变化属性和综合特征。着重讨论这3类前兆异常从中期向短临过渡的标记、可能的场、源兆、前兆变化的相关性、分布的不均匀性及与地震活动的一致性。在此基础上,提出综合判定指标并用概率增益的方法对我国大陆强震预测作了一定的应用研究。

In this paper the precursor anomaly terms of more than 80 earthquake examples from 1987～1999 in China' continent are applied for statistical study. The space-time variation property and synthetical characteristics of precursor anomaly terms are investigated for liquid, deformation and electromagnetism before strong earthquakes. The signs of precursor anomaly transition from the medium term to the short-imminent term, the field and source omen, relativity among precursory variation, nonuniformity of omen distribution and the coincidence of precursors with seismic activity are emphasized. On the basis of above-mentioned facts, the synthetic determination index is put forward; also study on prediction application for strong earthquakes has been tried by using the probability gain methods.