加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究

Preliminary study on mining induced earthquake prediction in terms of Loading-Unloading Response Ratio (LURR)

加卸载响应比(LURR)理论是一种前景很好的中期地震预测方法,通常在强烈地震发生前的数月至1～2年LURR出现高值,因而LURR可以作为强烈天然地震的前兆,用此方法曾经成功地预测过Northridge地震(1994年1月17日,M6.7,美国加州),Kanto地震(1996年9月11日,M6.6,日本)及不少发生在中国的天然地震。用房山煤矿1992年8月至1993年7月的微震资料,计算了全年内7组M>2.1矿震前的加卸载响应比Y值,其中5组矿震前Y值均明显大于1(Y≥2.9)。以上结果表明,加卸载响应比理论有可能用于矿震的预测。

The LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. High LUGG value usually could be observed prior to strong earthquakes several moths to a year or two so that it could be served as an indicator of strong natural earthquakes. In terms of LURR several earthquakes such as Northridge earthquake (1994-1-17, M6.7, California, USA), Kanto earthquake (1996-9-11, M6.6, Japan) and some earthquakes occurred in China have been successfully predicted. The variation of LURR has been calculated using the seismic data of Fangshan Coal Mine during the period from August 1992 to July 1993. There were 7 groups of mining induced earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.1, the values of LURR were significantly larger than 1 (LURR≥2.9) prior to 5 groups among the 7 groups. These results suggest that LURR could be served as a precursor to predict the mining induced earthquake.