基于灰色时序的航空发动机磨损故障预测模型

A Forecasting Method of Aero-engine Wear Faults Based on Gray Time Sequence Model

把时序AR(n)预测模型和灰色GM (1,1)预测模型两者有机结合起来 ,形成新的灰色时序模型的预测模型。以发动机光谱为例 ,经过实测数据检验 ,显示了其更好的预测效果。

Time sequence forecasting model and gray system forecasting model are combined to form into the gray time sequence model. With reference to the data of aero-engine's oil spectral analysis,the forecasting method research of the wear faults upon the application of time sequence model,gray system model and combination model are conducted,and the gray time sequence forecasting model is more efficient.