强势经济造就强势货币?(下)——兼析人民币实际汇率变动

Does a strong economy create a strong currency? [Ⅱ]---On movements of RMB real exchange rate

本文主要探讨人民币实际汇率变动与中国经济增长之间是否符合巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,认为改革开放以来,中国的经济增长与人民币实际汇率之间先呈现反向关系,在1994年后呈现正向关系。巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的假设条件目前在中国并没有得到满足。长期来看,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应未来在中国可能会存在。

This paper discusses whether the B-S effect applies to the relationship between the RMB real exchange rate movement and China's economic growth. Since China's opening-up and reform, economic growth and the change in the RMB real exchange rate first changed from a negative correlation to a positive one in 1994. Though the assumptions for the B-S effect are not yet satisfied in China at present, the B-S effect is likely to exist in China in the future.