中国石油探明储量变化特点与发展趋势

Analysis of the Change Characteristics and Development Trend of Proven Oil Reserves in China

分析了中国近年来石油探明储量变化的特点,其主要表现为:较稳定、较高幅度地增长,但各地区存在明显的差异性;新增油田的储量规模变小和新增油田的储量丰度降低;剩余可采储量增长缓慢。根据中国历年石油探明储量的变化特点,选用了逻辑斯谛模型、经验趋势法、灰色系统模型3种方法,并结合国内其他预测值,综合分析了近中期中国石油探明储量的增长趋势。预计2001—2005年期间新增探明储量达35×108～38×108t,2006—2010年期间新增探明储量32×108～35×108t,石油勘探具有良好的发展潜力。

In recent years,China's proven oil reserves s how the varied characteristics which can be summarized as following:1)growth with steadiness and high range,but there exist distinct differences;2)reduc tion of both pool size and reserves abundance in the newly discovered oilfields ,and3)extremely slow growth of remained recoverable reserves.According to th ese characteristics,Logistic model,experience trend method and grey system mod el are selected,integrated with domestic various prediction results,comprehens ive analysis of growth trend of proven oil reserves is made for the short-term and medium-term in China.It is estimated that new incremental proven reserves will reach3.5～3.8billion tons during the period from2001to2005; 3.2～3.5billion tons during the period from2006to2010,showing a g ood explo-ration potential.