论消费信贷与国内需求

Consumer Credit and Domestic Demand

本文通过对消费信贷的理论与实证分析,提出了关于消费信贷与国内需求内在关系的两个定理,即长期消费需求等效定理与短期国内需求不等效定理。根据这两个定理,作者认为,消费信贷既不能拉动长期消费需求,也不能拉动短期国内需求;因此,消费信贷不应成为刺激消费的首选之策,而不断提高城乡居民的收入,才是扩大国内需求的根本举措。

Based on theoretic analysis and positive analysis, this paper puts forward two theorems on the relationship be- tween consumer credit and domestic demand, i. e., long - term consumption demand equivalence theorem and short - term domestic demand non - equivalence theorem. According to the two theorems, the authors point out that consumer credit can stimulate neither long - term demand nor short - term domestic demand. Consumer credit thus should not be the first policy choice for stimulating consumption, instead, continuously improving the incomes of urban and rural people should be the essential measure to increase domestic demand.