恐怖袭击风险减缓实例分析

A Case Study on Mitigating the Risk of Terror Attack

为避免被安全机构监视和追踪 ,恐怖组织常常利用网络结构的优势 ,通过对被动支持者的渗透 ,以突然出现的聚集群方式发动恐怖袭击。军队、警察等传统的反恐工具在试图压制这种多源性恐怖活动时将面临更大挑战。以“东突”问题为例 ,应用物理学的渗透概念模拟特定区域恐怖袭击威胁的形成机理 ,从理论上分析了采取非破坏性手段减缓恐怖袭击风险的可行性。

Terrorists usually take advantage of alternative forms of network structure to avoid being monitored and tracked by the security services, and to operate a terror attack by sudden swarm of cluster through immergence of passive supporters. Conventional counter-terrorist forces such as military and police will face a greater challenge in trying to suppress the terrorism with multi-originated feature. East Turkistan terrorist issue is taken as a case to simulate and analyze the evolution mechanism of a given regional terror attack threat, using physical concept of percolation. The feasibility to mitigate the risk of terror attack by non-destructive measures is theoretically analyzed.