深圳市水资源承载能力模糊综合评价

Fuzzy assessment of water carrying capacity for Shenzhen city

采用模糊综合评价法对深圳市水资源承载能力进行综合评价,评价指标包括人均GDP、万元GDP综合耗水率、城镇居民人均月生活用水量、废污水排放率、水资源开发利用率、人均水资源可利用量、水质优良率、植被覆盖率和水资源综合管理效率,并将其分成高中低3级,参照国内不同地区的指标值,提出了评价指标分级的标准值;采用线性函数作为模糊隶属度计算的函数形式,提出了对计算结果进行模糊综合评价的计算方法和评价标准。采用此方法对深圳市2002年的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价,结论为深圳市2002年水资源承载能力处于适载的临界范围,有较强的超载迹象,应采取措施提高水资源的承载能力。

This paper assesses the water carrying capacity of Shenzhen City by using Fuzzy Assessment method which employs an indicator set with 9 indicators including average GDP per capital, comprehensive water using ratio of GDP, monthly water usage per capital, waste water disposal ratio, water resources developing ratio, utilizable water resources per capital, high water quality ratio, land cover percentage and water resources management efficient. The indicators are divided into 3 levels, the low, the medium and the high levels, and the standard for dividing the indicators is suggested. With a linear function for calculating the fuzzy subordination, the fuzzy assessing method is proposed. The method is used to assess the water carrying capacity of Shenzhen City, the results shows that the water carrying capacity of Shenzhen City in 2002 is in the range of rational-loading with a trend toward over-loading, which indicates that some countermeasures need to be taken to increase the water carrying capacity in the future.