什么造成了经济增长的波动,供给还是需求:中国经济的RBC分析

What Makes the Fluctuation of Economic Growth, Supply or Demand: The RBC Analysis of the Chinese Economy

本文建立内生资本利用和公共消费需求的单部门随机动态一般均衡模型 ,引入总劳动供给和消费需求的预期偏差所代表的不确定因素建立太阳黑子模型。我们的研究表明 ,在规模报酬不变技术条件下 ,本文所建立的模型在较大的合理参数范围内仍存在稳定的吸引解。同单一生产技术冲击的基本实际商业周期模型比较 ,太阳黑子冲击对波动的贡献有限 ;实际冲击解释波动的主要部分 ;引入供给冲击改善了模型对消费的预测能力 ;引入供给冲击优于引入需求冲击。政策建议是 :改善劳动供给的关键在于从现行劳动政策和制度入手 (如户籍制度 ) ,优化劳动配置 ,提高劳动效率。

Assuming constant scale return, and considering the uncertainty of aggregate labor supply and demand of consumption, this paper constructs a sun\|spot model with endogenous utility rates of both physical capital and common consumption. Tests in the paper showed: in a great reasonable scope of parameters, dynamic system of the model keeps a stable sink; compared with the single\|productive\|shock RBC model, sun\|spots model has poor power to explain the cycle, real model explains the main part of the cycle. Introducing supply shock improves the predictive power to consumption; supply shock works better than demand shock. We suggest that the key point to improve labor supply should be optimizing the allocation of labor and promoting the efficiency of labor based on the current labor policies.