技术进步与经济波动:以美国为例的分析

Technical Progress and Economic Fluctuation: The Case of the U.S

经济长波本质上可以说是熊彼特所说的创新周期 ,技术进步的周期性变化引起了经济的周期性波动 ,长波经历的时间内在地表现为技术进步周期性变化经历的时间。本文考察了二战结束至今美、日、德等主要资本主义国家的经济波动 ,并着重对美国 2 0世纪 90年代以来信息技术状况与经济波动进行深入分析 ,文中指出信息技术的特点使得技术成长和扩散的速度大大加快 ,由其推动的第五轮经济长波所经历的时间有可能缩短 ,尤其是衰退期缩短。

According to the long wave theory, it is the cyclical movement of technology innovation that causes the cyclical movement of economy. The length of long wave depends on the period of technology innovation. In this article, we review the economic fluctuation in America, Germany and Japan after the world war two, and particularly analyze relationship between the information technology and economic fluctuation in America since the 1990s.We point out that information technology makes the speed of technology diffusion much faster, accordingly, the fifth long wave can be shorten, especially the recession period can be shorten. The new technology innovation started during the recession period can drive economy into a new long wave.