开放中的经济增长与政策选择——当前经济增长态势分析

Growth in the Open Economy and Policy Options ——The Trend Analysis of Current Economic Growth Economic Growth Frontier Research Group

对外开放与高资本积累共同推动了中国经济增长 ,其中政府的主导作用非常鲜明。文章首先指出 :1)尽管现在贸易摩擦频繁 ,但中国的贸易增长仍有空间 ;2 )虽然现实的储蓄缺口已经消失 ,但考虑到大量农村劳动力需要转移 ,资本形成缺口依然很大 ,仍有引进外资的必要。文章接着分析 :由于中国在对外开放与资本形成机制上存在着政府干预形成的严重扭曲 ,从而在增长过程中不断累积着“结构扭曲”的风险。面临金融开放 ,这种扭曲的结构会变得更加脆弱。因此 ,如何充分利用外部资源加快中国的非农化进程 ,同时消除制度性扭曲 ,优化资源配置方式 ,减少外部冲击风险 ,促进经济增长成为本文探讨的主线。

Economic openness and high accumulation of capital both promote China's economic growth, in which the dominant role of government is very remarkable. The paper firstly indicate that:1)trade-oriented strategy can be sustained though more and more trade disputes take place, and 2) foreign investment is still needed as the great amount of rural labor force to be shifted from land are taken into consideration, the potential capital formation gap is still large even if there seems no actual saving gap. The paper then points out that since there are serious distortions due to government intervention in the policy of opening-up and the mechanism of capital formation, the risk of structural distortion will be accumulated with economic growth. This kind of distorted structure could be more vulnerable in the phase of financial openness. Therefore, the main theme of our paper is to promote the process of rural labor migration and growth by making full use of foreign resources, eliminating the institutional distortions, optimizing the resource allocation, and downsizing the risk of outside shock.