中国入世对国际经济影响的量化分析

A Quantitetive Analysis on the Effect of China's WTO Accession to World Economy

中国工业品出口引起的竞争加剧会不会导致东南亚国家非工业化 ,使它们回到作为初级产品出口国的地位 ?或者 ,制造业产业链中是否存在东南亚国家可以专业化的有利空间 ?通过G Cubed亚太模型的模拟表明 ,中国大量劳动力全面进入国际劳动分工只有在满足以下两个条件的情况下才会导致东南亚国家的非工业化 :流向东南亚国家的国外直接投资大量地转向中国 ,并且东南亚国家放任FDI流入的下降从而降低由此带来的技术扩散。如果东南亚国家能够通过其它方式很快吸收国外新技术及提高本土技术创新能力阻止技术下降 ,那么它们就能在国际制造业产业链中找到有利空间。本文的政策含义是 :东南亚国家要通过向它们的科学家和管理者加速扩散新知识以及为那些下岗工人提供合适的再培训 ,从而将人力资本的深化与广化作为首要考虑的目标。

Would the growing competition from Chinese industrial exports de-industrialize Southeast Asia (SEA), returning SEA to being a primary commodity exporter? Or would there be sufficient lucrative niches within the manufacturing production chains that SEA could specialize in? Our simulations of the G-Cubed Asia Pacific model suggest that the full integration of China's huge labor force into the international division of labor would de-industrialize SEA only if two conditions are met: foreign direct investment is significantly redirected away from SEA toward China, and SEA allows the drop in FDI inflow to lower the rate of technological diffusion to its economies. If SEA could prevent itself from falling behind technologically by finding new ways to absorb new foreign technologies quickly and by increasing the indigenous capacity for technical innovations, then it could find lucrative niches within the international manufacturing production chains. The policy implication is that SEA must give the highest priority to deepening and widening it pool of human capital by speeding up the diffusion of new knowledge to its scientists and managers, and providing appropriate retraining programs for the displaced workers.