经济转轨、不确定性与城镇居民消费行为

Uncertainty During Economic Transition and Household Consumption Behavior in Urban China

本文利用中国社会科学院经济研究所收入分配课题组 1 995、1 999及 2 0 0 2年的城镇住户调查数据分析收入不确定性、失业风险、医疗支出不确定性及教育支出等因素对城镇居民消费行为的影响。研究结果表明这些不确定性因素对城镇居民消费水平具有显著的负效应 ,但效应的大小也因这些因素的可预期性的变化而变化。因此增强政策的可预见性、完善社会保障制度等措施对化解居民收支风险将具有重要作用。

By means of 1995,1999,and 2002 cross-section urban household survey data,the paper examines how the uncertainty factors,such as income uncertainty,unemployment risk,uncertainty of medical expenses and educational expenses,affect household consumption in urban China. The results denote that such uncertainty factors have significant negative effects on household consumption in urban China. The degree of the effects is changed with the predictability of such factors. Therefore,enhancing the predictability of economic policy and building up a perfect social security system will play critical role in risk sharing of the households.