疾病空间分布趋势面模型阶次确定方法的研究

Order-selecting methods for trend surface model of spatial distribution of disease

目的:探讨确定疾病空间分布趋势面模型阶次的方法。方法:通过分析趋势面模型和线性回归模型的关系,评价确定趋势面模型阶次的多种方法的适用性。结果:讨论了趋势面模型与线性回归模型的区别,提出了确定趋势面模型阶次的5种方法:直接判定法、拟合优度判定法、剩余均方判定法、逐次F检验判定法、样本穿插二分判定法。结论:根据疾病地理流行病学原理,应综合应用上述各种判定方法的结果确定趋势面模型阶次。

Objective:To explore the order-selecting methods for trend surface model of spatial distribution of disease.Methods:Based on the geographical epidemiology of disease,we researched the relationship between the linear regression model and the trend surface model,and explored the order- selecting method for trend suface model.Results:There were many differences between the linear regression model and the trend surface model,and according to these differences,we put forward the following five methods to select the order of trend surface model:method based on geographical epidemiology of disease,R^2,residual mean square,F-test order by order,and interlacing with two groups of sampling points in the same area.Conclusion:For the practice of trend surface analysis,we should unite the above five order-selecting methods to select the order of trend surface model exactly.