灰色预测理论在火灾损失预测中的应用

Application of gray forecasting in the predication of fire cost

简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点和其建模过程,并将其应用于湖南省火灾损失预测之中,并利用关联度分析检验了所建火灾损失预测模型的精度,经检验模型的分辨率比较高,同时预测值和原始值的曲线图也反映了这一点,因此模型的预测结果比较可靠,对于消防部门火灾预防有一定帮助.图1,表2,参8.

This thesis makes a brief introduction to the setting-up procedures of the model for calamity forecast and the features of the model are summarized in this paper as well.The precision of the model has been tested by employing the method of the gray relative degree analysis and the result of the test is excellent.Fig 1 in this thesis also explains that the the precisioin of the model is excellent.This model has been applied to the fire cost forecasts in Human province,which has proved the model to be accurate in function and reliable in the predictive results,and it can be used practically in fire cost predication.As the results of the fire cost predication is made when fire frequently broke out,and therefore,it is of a certain guiding significance to the fire department in fire prevention.1fig.,2tabs.,8refs.