社会稳定的系统动态分析及其定量化研究

System Dynamic Analysis of Social Stability and Its Quantitative Study

社会稳定历来就是执政者和普通百姓都十分关注的问题。我国正处于社会转型期,社会稳定问题理所当然备受关注。但是,如何维护社会稳定?如何创造出一种对社会稳定的测量方法,能够在社会将要失稳之前就超前预警和预控社会的政治局面?这无疑是一个既有现实意义,又有理论价值的重大课题。对此,采用系统动态分析的方法和社会指标技术,建立一套能够对社会稳定的程度进行计量的工具——社会稳定指标体系,对于国家各级政府完善社会预警机制,维护社会稳定会大有裨益。

The issue of social stability has long been a major concern of the government and the civilians, especially in China's transitional period nowadays.However,how to maintain the social stability,and by which way can we make presentiments and countermeasures by inventing a method for stability evalua- tion remains to be a question.This subject is no doubt for its practical as well as theoretical significance. Therewith,it will certainly contribute a lot to social stability and improve the social presentiment mecha- nism for the government at all levels by establishing a set of social stability index system,in which the method of system dynamics and the social indices will be adopted.