气候动力学与气候预测理论的研究

A Study of the Climate Dynamics and Climate Prediction Theory

主要概述了中国科学院大气物理研究所近些年来在气候动力学与气候预测理论研究领域的若干重要研究进展。通过对气候系统变化多尺度特征及其动力学的分析和研究,提出了一系列气候系统动力学理论,并在此基础上提出了适合于我国季风气候特点的气候预测理论和方法,在国际上率先开展了跨季度数值气候预测,进一步建立了先进、完善的短期数值气候预测系统,并应用于我国夏季旱涝预测业务。这些工作既带有极大的基础性意义,同时也具有巨大的应用价值,为我国大气科学及气候科学乃至环境科学的研究提供了重要工具。

Several important achievements on the climate dynamics and climate prediction theory at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during recent years have been briefly summarized in this paper. Through the investigation of multi-scale characteristics of the climate system and its dynamics, a series of dynamical theories of climate system have been proposed, a-long with the climate prediction theory and technology suitable for the monsoon climate over China. After that, we took the lead in carrying out the dynamical extra-seasonal climate prediction, which lead to the establishment of the comprehensive dynamical short-term climate prediction system in I AP, and this prediction system has been applied to the operational prediction of summer drought/flood conditions over China. Generally speaking. all of these achievements show not only their fundamental academic impor-tance, but also their great value for the real application, and so can provide valuable tools for the study of atmospheric sciences, climate and even environmental sciences.