苹果果实日灼预测预报计算机模型

Development of computer model for prediction of apple fruit sunburn

为了及时准确地预测预报苹果果实日灼发生的时间,提高预防措施的效果,特研制了本计算机模型。通过对树上活体果实表面温度进行生长季全程连续监测,同步对比相应的气象资料,研究了主要气象因子(包括气温、日照、风速和相对湿度)与果实表面温度的相关性,确定了上述气象要素与果实表面温度变化的多元回归方程。此外,通过比较研究不同品种、果实发育期以及树势对果实日灼敏感性的差异,确定了不同品种果实日灼阈值温度以及这些因子在影响果实日灼中的效应参数。将模型预测值与田间果实温度实测值进行对比,验证该模型预报结果符合率达85.22％。近两年该模型已开始在美国华盛顿州果园试用。通过在本模型的用户界面下拉菜单中选择品种、月份和树势,并在相应位置输入当日11:00～14:00平均日照、气温、风速和相对湿度数值,即可得到当日是否发生果实日灼的预测预报结果。

The present model is developed so as to control fruit sunburn more effectively.By continually monitoring fruit temperatures in situ and recording weather data simultaneously,the correlation between daily maximum fruit temperature and main meteorological factors is documented,which include average air temperature,solar radiation,wind velocity and relative humidity.As a result,the regression equation has been established among them.Meanwhile,the study on difference of fruit susceptibility to sunburn in cultivars,fruit growing stages and tree vigor has made it possible to incorporate these parameters in the model.By means of comparing predicted values with field-measured readings,the fitting rate of predicted results reaches 85.22%.The model has been tried in Washington State in last two years and proved quite perfect.By selecting the proper items from the down-pull manus of cultivar,month and tree vigor as well as inputting the values of solar radiation,air temperature,wind velocity and relative humidity during 11: 00-14:00,the prediction results of fruit sunburn could be obtained immediately.