上海市虹口区和南汇县居民肺癌死亡危险性的APC泊松回归模型分析

STATISTICAL MODELLING OF AGE,PERIOD AND COHORT EFFECTS FOR LUNG CANCER MORTALITY RISK IN HONGKO AND NANHUI,SHANGHAI

应用新近发展而成的APC泊松回归模型调整了地区、性别、年龄和出生队列等因素的相互影响,结果表明,与南汇县比较,虹口区1921年以前出生的男性队列肺癌死亡危险性很高(P<0.01);并且,在肺癌死亡危险性方面,两地男性队列均显著高于两地女性队列,但两地较晚出生的男性队列之间以及女性队列之间无显著差别。

This report presents the estimates of independent effects of age, period and cohortin urban Hongko district and suburban Nanhui county, Shanghai, using Poisson Regres-sion method. The study was based on the registration data of lung cancer over 10-yearperiod, 1976-1985, and Robertson's technique was used to calculate the covariates.According to the estimates from model, the male lung cancer mortality risk in thegeneration born before 1921 was significantly higher in Hongko than in Nanhui. How-ever, there were no obvious differences in lung cancer risks between the males bornaround 1921-1955 and between the females in both areas. We also found that the cohorteffect was more pronounced in male than in female, and the female cohort values hadbeen stable in both areas since this century.