我国股票市场的价值基础及价格泡沫研究

Study on Value and Bubbles of China's Stock Market

借助剩余收益模型测定了我国股票市场1992年至2002年历年年末的市场价值基础,并探讨了股票市场价格泡沫问题.研究结果表明,尽管上市公司的盈利能力不断下降,但市场的价值基础并未出现明显下降;由于市场的不成熟,我国股票市场中的泡沫成分较多;股价指数及市盈率指标不具有价格泡沫及投资价值的判断功能.

The residual income model is used to evaluate China's stock market at the end of each year in the period of 1992～2002.Then stock market bubbles are studied.The research results show that the intrinsic value of China's stock market remains stable although the earnings of public companies decrease continuously.They also show that there are a lot of bubbles in stock price because of market ~immaturity ,and that stock index and P/E ratio don't have the function to indicate bubbles and investment value of stock market.