四川省耕地数量变化过程及其驱动力研究

The Change and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Quantity in Sichuan Province

近年来 ,随着人口的不断增长和国民经济的发展 ,四川省耕地呈不断减少的趋势 ,从四川省耕地数量变化的过程来看 ,主要经历了快速减少 -缓慢减少 -急剧减少 3个阶段。从计量模型分析的结果来看 ,耕地减少的主要原因在于农村人口的增加、城市化水平的提高 ,以及非农产业的不断发展。因此 ,能否严格控制农村人口的增长 ,不断增加对土地开发整理的投入 ,坚决贯彻和实施国家耕地保护政策 ,协调好结构调整与耕地保护之间的矛盾将是决定今后耕地数量变化的关键。

In recent years, with the increase of population and development of economy, the quantity of cultivated land decreases. It can be divided into three stages, which are called rapid decreasing stage-slow decreasing stage-sharp decreasing stage. According to the analyses of model, the main reasons for the cultivated land decreasing lie in the increase of population, the development of urbanizing and nonagricultural industry, etc. So, in the future, the decreasing rate of the cultivated land will be decided by some key measures, such as controlling the increase of population rigidly, increasing the input of land exploitation and renovation, carrying out the polices of cultivated lands protection firmly and so on.