我国人民币名义汇率政策选择的适宜性评价与阶段性转换——基于人民币实际汇率的变动规律

Measurement and Analysis on Desired Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

本文通过构建人民币实际汇率的微观需求模型,揭示出由我国开放经济运行内生决定的人民币实际汇率的变动规律,基于此,本文对我国人民币名义汇率当前政策选择的适宜性和未来政策阶段性转换的依据进行了评价与判定。本文的推理和结论为我国人民币名义汇率的政策选择提供了较为有力的理论支持。

Based on existing literatures on desired foreign exchange reserve, this paper puts forward the implication of de- sired foreign exchange reserve, and constructs the structural model of desired foreign exchange reserve. Under the actual circumstance of the country, this paper measures the desired foreign exchange reserve during 1982 - 2002 by adopting the co - integration methodology in econometrics, and analyzes the main causes leading to the maladjustment of foreign exchange reserve during that period.