纺织工业趋势与预测

The Trend and the Outlook of the Textile Industry

文章从多个方面分析了国内外纺织工业的发展趋势,并对2002年中国纺织工业的生产、销售、出口状况提供了完整、翔实的数据,指出有以下几个方面需要应对:国内市场国际化,国际市场国内化;单一企业竞争转向企业群体之间的竞争:一个供应链与另一个供应链,一个物流配送系统与另一个物流配流系统,一个企业参与的群体与另一个企业参与的群体的竞争;由生产能力竞争变成生产能力乘上流通能力的系数。企业的发展不仅取决于能生产多少适销产品,而取决于能将多少商品顺利地销售出去,取决于流通能力,流通已成为经济运行的先导力量,争夺销售终端,创造客户的竞争将十分激烈;由产品竞争转向品牌的竞争,企业从创造有型资产到创造无形资产,并对无形资产——品牌进行销售、许可、特许经营等商业性开发投资为目的的商业运作,最大限度地挖掘品牌的价值,推动竞争从低级形态转向高级形态;由单纯追求市场份额的竞争转向对市场快速反应能力的竞争。现代高新技术的发展,全球市场经济体制的趋同,世界贸易组织统一的“游戏规则”,已把一层层篱笆拆光了,使技术转移周期越来越短,商品更新换代越来越快,随着消费者消费水平的提高,其消费偏好越来越个性化、多样化和层次化,企业生命周期越来越短,必然重新组合。由价格战、广告战,单一形式?

The article analyses the development trend of textile industry at home and abroad from different perspectives and provides complete and accurate figures on the saies, output and export of the textile industry and points out the problems needing addressing. Those problems are the change of domestic market to international market and international market to domestic market, the shift of competition from single enterprises to enterprise conglomerations; the competi-tion between one supply chain with another and the competition between one material flow system with another as well as the change of competition of production capacity to production capacity plus circulation capability. Enterprise's development will not only be decided by how many sellable products it can produce but also by how many products it can sell successfully. In fact the development of an enterprise is upon its circulation capability, which has become the dominant driving force of economic running. The competition to get more customers will be very fierce. The competition will transform from products to brands. Enterprises will create visible assets as well as invisible assets and propel the low level competition to a higher level through exerting to full extent the value of brands in means of commercial operations such as brand selling and brand licensing with an aim of business investment. The competition will change from uniform pursuit to expand market share to the quick market response. The development of modern scientific technologies and the integration of global economy as well as the rules of WTO have shortened the term of technical transfer and speed up the product substitution. With the improvement of consumption power, consumption needs will become more and more individual, diversified and multi-layer, which will make the life circle of enterprises shorter and shorter and lead to a reconstruction. The competition of pure price and advertising will change to the competition of technical input and added value. For example, the particular features of products will create value chain for good services. The competition of capital investment shifts to the competition of human resources. The competition of enterprise efficiency changes to the competition of government administrative efficiency. China's national economy maintains high growth rate in 2003 and the living standards have been improved continually and the consumption of apparel keeps stable growth. Under the favorable circumstances, the rapid development of automobile, transportation, construction, irrigation work and agricultural industries brings new growth room for hometextile industry and technical textile industry in the domestic market. In point view of export, the increase rate of textiles export this year will decline with less driving force due to the unstable international circumstances and the rather too rapid growth of export last year. The price of raw materials of chemical fiber will fluctuate due to the price going-up of petroleum. The price of cotton tends to be high before new cotton comes to the market. These will affect the production of cotton textile industry and chemical fiber textile industry. The competition of regular products will be stronger; the saies and production season will become more remarkable and the comfortable and functional products with individual features will enjoy a larger market share. In conclusion, as long as we enhance the industrial structure adjustment contributing great efforts to creativity and keeps improving the level of modern management and marketing and strengthens the reform of state-owned enterprises, China's textile industry will keep the stable growth this year with its international competitiveness improved further.