防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

A PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON THE METHOD OF INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING I OR CATASTROPHE RESISTANT ENGINEERINGS

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。

Some concepts are generalized in the paper,which are the catastrophe prevented ability,catastrophic loss degree of catastrophe prevented engineering,catastrophic potential,catastrophicintensity and dynamic decision criterion.The method of investment decision for catastrophe prenventedengineerings is established preliminary,and then analyzed.In the method,the decision includes theinitial investment(or initial fortification level)decision and maintenance investment(or maintenancelevel)decision in its catastrophe prevented period (or its service life).As an example,the initialfortification level of an aseismic structure is optimized by using the method gived in the paper,and thecalculation results show that remarkable economic benefits can be achieved by using the method todecide the investment of catastrophe prevented engineerings.