基于前沿陡升信息保持策略的高峰负荷预报研究

RESEARCH ON PEAK LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON THE STRATEGY FOR PRESERVING STEEP RISE INFORMATION OF FRONT POSITION

从调峰、调频及联络线调控的角度论述了电力系统高峰负荷前沿的预报精度问题。在探讨其根源的基础上,提出了保持电力系统高峰负荷前沿陡升信息的策略并分析了该策略的有效性。基于所提策略和运行模式,提出了高峰负荷预报的算法,并结合辽宁电网的实际给出了数值算例,。结果表明:该策略能较好地保持前沿陡升信息,明显地提高高峰前沿负荷预报精度。

This paper dissertates the forecasting precision for the front position of the peak load, with regard to peak load, frequency and tieline regulation. On the basis of probing into rootstock, the strategy for preserving steep rise information on the front position of the peak load is proposed and the validity of the strategy is analyzed. According to the proposed strategy and operating pattern, the algorithm for the peak load forecast is proposed. The numerical results in Liaoning power system are given in this paper. The results show the strategy can preserve the steep rise information and evidently improve forecasting precision.