货币政策效应的非对称性与紧缩时期我国货币政策中介目标的可行性研究

Study of None-Symmetrical Quality of Monetary Policy Effect and Feasibility of Meso-objectives of Monetary Policy in the Period of Deflation in China

我国经济建设的实践证明,货币供给量在通货膨胀时期能够灵敏地反映出社会总需求的宽松度,并且能够有效地防止通货膨胀的出现,但在紧缩时期则对社会总需求的宽松度缺乏灵敏性,因而并不适合继续作为货币政策的中介目标。由于货币政策效应的非对称性,客观上要求央行在不同时期选择不同的领先指标作为货币政策的中介目标。在对目前国内学者提出的中介目标的利弊进行分析之后,本文提出,在紧缩时期,央行可以使用产成品库存总额占消费总额的比率作为执行货币政策的中介目标,并对此观点作了必要的分析。

The practice of China's economy proves that supply of monetary reflects loose degree of general social demand, which prevents inflation effectively. While in deflation, loose degree of general social demand is lack of sensitivity, then it cannot be treated as the media aim any more. As of the none-symmetrical quality of monetary policy, the Central Bank is required to choose the different leading index of different periods as the media aims. After analyzing the pros and cons given by domestic scholars, the essay points out that, in time of deflation, the Central Bank can treat the ratio between storage of products and general sum of consumption as the media aim of monetary policy.