阿勒泰地区死亡病例与气象要素关系初步分析

Primary Study of Relation Between Death Toll in Emergency Treatment and Meteorological Elements in Alaty Region

对阿勒泰地区急诊死亡人数与气象要素进行了逐步回归分析 ,结果表明逐月、逐季死亡人数与同期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均气压、日照时数的相关关系较好。影响脑血管疾病逐月死亡人数的主要气象因子为气压 ,呈正相关 ,影响呼吸系统疾病逐月死亡人数的主要的气象因子为气温 ,呈负相关 ,所有回归方程都反映出冬季与气温呈负相关 ,气压呈正相关 ,夏季与气温呈正相关 ,气压呈负相关 ,即温度低、气压高的冬季和温度高、气压低的夏季死亡人数相对较多。

The stepwise regression analysis was carried out between the death toll in emergency cases and meteorological factors in Alaty of Xinjiang Province. The results show that there is good correlation between monthly/seasonal death toll and mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,mean pressure,sunshine duration. The meteorological factor having the greatest influence on the monthly death toll of cerebral blood diseases is pressure (positive correlation),and that on breathe system diseases is temperature (negative correlation). For all the equations,it is shown that in winter,there is negative correlation between death toll and temperature,and positive correlation between death toll and pressure;in summer,there is positive correlation between death toll and temperature,and negative correlation between death toll and pressure. It means that the death toll is relatively high in the winter with low temperature and high pressure,and in the summer with high temperature and low pressure.