基于经济动态效率考察的养老保险筹资模式研究

Dynamic Efficiency and the Model for Funding Raising Schemes of the Pension System

本文在深入分析两种有代表性的社会养老保险制度运行的内在机理的基础上 ,认为基金制社会养老保险制度的引入并不会改变行为人的最优行为 ,而现收现付制社会养老保险制度的引入却会改变行为人的最优行为。通过考察我们发现 ,当前中国实际经济运行状态正处于动态无效区域。有鉴于此 ,本文认为当前养老保险制度转轨的时机并不成熟 。

This paper offers a deep analysis on the inherent operation mechanism of two typical pension systems and then draws the following conclusion: while the introduction of funding scheme has no influnce on the agent's optimal behavior, the introduction of pay\|as\|you\|go scheme does change it. But the welfare effect of change on the agent's optimal behavior depends on how an economy actually operates. The research shows that Chinese economy has been in a state of dynamic inefficiency. For this reason we suggest that it is not yet the right time for system transition and the pay\|as\|you\|go scheme is still a more suitable fund raising scheme for current Chinese economy.