新疆绿洲可持续发展评估研究

Study on the assessment of sustainable development of the oasis in Xinjiang Province

在充分分析新疆绿洲发生发展特点的基础上,参考国际、国内有关可持续发展的评估研究,提出了新疆绿洲可持续发展评估指标体系,即由目标层、控制层、状态层与指标层组成。社会发展、生态环境可持续发展与区位条件是制约新疆绿洲发展能否持续的重要因素,构成了评估指标体系的控制层。运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各指标的权重值,并通过线性加权法对新疆绿洲可持续发展进行了综合评估。评估结果表明,新疆绿洲目前处在弱可持续发展水平,社会发展处于中等可持续发展水平,生态环境处于不可持续发展水平,区位条件很差。

Based on the characteristics of the oasis in Xinjiang,this paper puts forward its own assessment indicator system of sustainable development,which consists of four hierarchies:object stratum,domination stratum,state stratum and indicator stratum.In addition,social development,ecologic environment development,and the local condition are the most important determinants to the oasis sustainable development,and they compose the domination stratum.At the same time the weights values of assessing indicators are estimated,by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Then the sustainable development degree is estimated for the oasis in Xinjiang,by using linear weighted factor method.The results make us know that it is in a state of low level sustainable development to the oasis in Xinjiang,its society is in medium level,its ecologic environment is in the state of unsustainable development,and its local condition is very poor.