基于Monte Carlo模拟法自增强厚壁圆筒可靠性研究

Research on Reliability of Auto-Reinforcement Thick Wall Vessel Based on Monte Carlo Simulative Method

为保证安全生产对厚壁圆筒的可靠性研究是非常必要的。MonteCarlo模拟法可适用于解决可靠性工程问题,其求得的断裂概率值高。因此,利用MonteCarlo模拟法可以有效地对在役的自增强圆筒进行可靠性评估。通过对Cr-Ni-Mo-V钢材进行模拟得出了一种适合于自增强厚壁圆筒的新的缺陷评定方法。推出了概率模型,确定了与临界裂纹尺寸有关的确定量和随机变量。随机变量按正态分布,利用统计方法和假设检验,最后采用了矩形法得出了不同置信度和可靠度下的临界裂纹尺寸,可作为确定评定标准的依据。

The reliability research of thick wall vessel is the key to the safe production. Monte Carlo simulative method can find the application in solving the problem of reliability engineering in that the obtained probability value of crack is high. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulative method obtained by Cr-Ni-Mo-V simulation could be used to evaluate the reliability of self-reinforcement thick wall vessel under working. First, a model of probability was found. Then, the constant and the variety related to the size of critical crack were established. The variety is of normal distribution. Statistic method and hypothesis test were used in this process. At last, the size of critical crack was acquired under the condition of different belief as well as different reliability by using rectangle method, which is considered the evidence for ensuring the standard of assessment.