有关社会犯罪数量分析的研究

Research on the Quantity Analysis of Social Crime

基于犯罪定量学的研究机理,文章探讨了犯罪系统分析中的数学建模方法,提出了对犯罪系统进行数量分析要注重经验模型和机理模型。运用效用理论建立了宏观犯罪管理模型,同时,运用贝叶斯原理分析了犯罪行为的数量表达方法。研究表明,用定量的方法研究社会犯罪性质与特征,关键问题是犯罪统计规律的可靠性与参变量的选择。

Based on the research mechanism of quantitative criminology, this article probes into the method of setting up math model in crime system analysis, advances that attention should be paid to experience model and mechanism model while analyzing the quantity of crime system. It also sets up the macroscopic crime administration model with utility theory and analyzes the quantitative convey method of crime by applying Bayes theory. This research shows that to study the nature and feature of social crime with quantitative method, the key problem lies in the reliability of criminal statistical pattern and the selection of parameter.