指数趋势模型在斜坡变形位移预测中的应用

Application of exponential trend model to forecast of displacements of slope deformation

应用斜坡变形破坏预测的一种新方法——指数趋势模型,预测了链子崖危岩体GA监测点的位移量。首先,把非线性的指数趋势模型经线性化处理后,用线性最小二乘法对待定参数作出估计,然后,得出指数趋势模型,并对危岩体位移量进行了预测,其预测结果与实际位移值误差很小,说明该方法可用于斜坡变形破坏的预测预报。最后,还对预测值的区间和区间长度作出了预测。

Exponential trend model is applied to forecasting the displacement values at observation point GA in Lianziya hazardous rock mass. It is a new method which forecasts the deformation and failure of the slope. At first, nonlinear exponential trend model is linearized, and undetermined parameters are determined using the least square method; and then the exponential trend model without undetermined parameters and displacement values of forecast have been obtained. The errors of the results of forecast and actual displacement values are very little. It shows that this method may be used to forecast the displacement values in the deformation of slopes (landslides); and the effect is good. Finally, the interval and interval length of forecast values are also estimated.