中国金融抑制与经济发展的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of China's Financial Repression and Economic Development

金融抑制是发展中国家存在的一个普遍性问题,对于金融抑制是否会促进经济增长也成为理论界一直在探讨的一个热门话题。文章通过主成分分析法和协整理论对中国的金融抑制与经济发展的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明,金融抑制在特定的历史阶段虽然会促进经济发展,但是,它是以低效率为代价的。改革开放的历史表明,只有放松金融管制才会促进经济的持续、快速和健康发展。

Financial repression is a general phenomenon in developing countries, and whether it contributes to the economic growth has been a topic of interest in the theoretical field. Applying the principal component analysis method and the theory of co-integration, the essay makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between China's financial repression and her economic growth. The research shows that while financial repression does promote the rate of economic development in a specific historical period, it is at the cost of low efficiency. Moreover, China's history of reform and opening-up has demonstrates that a sustained, rapid and healthy economic development can be achieved on condition of relaxing the financial control.