摘要
在前人研究基础上,利用国家统计资料,分析了我国近20年来耕地变化总体趋势:耕地总量持续减少;耕地质量不断下降,且地区间的数量、质量变化不平衡。并采用最大似然法对多变量作因子分析,找出我国耕地变化的主要驱动力:人口的不断增长,第三产业的迅速发展,洪涝灾害的频繁发生及水土流失的日益加剧。最后针对分析结果,提出藏粮于土、加强水土保持、加强第三产业用地管理等若干关于耕地资源保护与管理的建议。
The main tendency of plowland in China in recent 20 years was analyzed on the base of anterior research and statistic data: the amount of plowland is decreasing; the quality of plowland is going bad, and the change of amount and quality of plowland is unbalanced among areas. The main driving factors of plowland change were found out by using the method of maximum likelihood: the rapid growth of population; the fast development of third industry; the frequent happening of flood disaster; and the increasing aggravation of soil erosion. Finally, some suggestion of soil protection and management was put forward according to the results of analysis: storing provisions in soil, conservation of soil and water, managing land use of the third industry in a scientific way, and so on.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
2004年第3期98-101,共4页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家"十五"攻关项目(2001BA606A-07)
国家重大基金项目(50099620)
关键词
耕地
耕地变化
驱动力
因子分析
plowland
plowland change
driving factors
factor analysis
