江西汛期连续暴雨形势特征与中期预报模型

Synoptic Patterns and Middle-range Prediction of Continual Heavy Rain in Jiangxi Province

利用 1 96 0～ 2 0 0 0年共 4 1年的历史天气图资料对江西省汛期连续暴雨过程的天气形势特征进行了分析 ,利用近 5年的T1 0 6资料对连续暴雨的物理量场特征进行了分析 ,得出了阻塞高压、副高等行星尺度系统和天气尺度系统的活动规律及连续暴雨的动力热力条件分布特征。并利用欧洲中心数值预报产品建立了汛期连续暴雨中期预报模型 ,经两年应用效果表明该模型有较强的预报能力。

The planetary scale system and synoptic scale system such as blocking high and West Pacific high during the continual rain in flood season by using the data from 1960 to 2000 are analyzed. The distribution of dynamical and thermal character of continual rain is obtained after analyzing the physical quantity fields with five-year T106 data. A middle-range prediction model for continual heavy rain in flood season with the help of ECMWF numerical forecast data. And the result is fine after two-year application.