商丘地区气象因素对冬小麦产量的影响分析

Analyses of Wheat Yield Influenced by Meterological Elements in Shangqiu District

采用积分回归、多元逐步回归、假设检验等统计学方法,定量地探讨了商丘地区冬小麦产量与当地光、热、水等气候条件的基本关系。指出影响商丘地区小麦产量波动的主要气候因素是越冬前及拔节期降水不足,时空分布不匀,小麦生长后期干热风危害严重。本文首次提出影响度的概念,为寻找关键因子提供了有效方法。

R. A. Fisher' s methods of integral regression,correlated analysis,test of hypothesis multiple successive regression were used to study the relationship between winter wheat yield and the main meteorological elements such as light, temperature and rainfall in Shangqiu District. The uneven rainfall distribution, xerothermic wind and the lack of rainfall in filling and heading stages before winter led to the unsteady wheat yield. To gain high output,attention should be paid to proserve rainwater by intensive cultivation. Influenced degree was put forward to offer a theoretic basis to reasonel wheat cultivation technology.