方差均值比分析法的运用——2002年股票市场价格指数波动因素的实证分析

The Application of the Method of Standard Variance Average Ratio ——An Empirical Analysis on Volatility Factors of Stock Price Index in 2002

针对我国股票市场的现状与问题提出了一种分析股票价格与波动因素的方法———标准方差均值比分析法,主要对股票市场总体价格进行分析;标准方差均值比即W,它是一个全面而准确地反映股票价格波动状况的指标,通过一定的波动量分配原则将W值平均分配给各因素,以此计算出各因素引起的波动即W值,从而统计出一定时期波动和影响因素的关系,用来指导和预测股票市场状况及指导投资;并用该方法对2002年深圳股票市场A股价格指数做了实证分析。

This paper shows the deficiency of the given theory about stock price by studying the theory and analyzing methods related, and provides a new method to analyze the stock market price level according to our stock market.The method of Standard Variance Average Ratio W, an index that is defined as the ratio of stock price index quantitatively. By means of statistics the value of W can be corresponded with the factors which cause it. In such way, the paper puts forward an analysis report about A-stock price index of Shenzhen Stock Market in 2002,and it can be applied to the advice or instruction of stock market management.