论中东伊斯兰国家民主化及其前景

On Democratization and Its Prospect in the Middle Eastern Islamic Countries

民主化是个长期而复杂的历史过程。在其进程中 ,“中东例外论”不符合中东伊斯兰国家的实际情况。中东伊斯兰国家的民主实践尚处于初始阶段 ,具有一定的滞后性。传统的伊斯兰政治文化、中东国家的权威主义、社会经济发展的整体水平、外部的影响等因素 ,不同程度地制约着中东伊斯兰国家的民主化进程。传统的政治治理模式仍是绝大多数中东国家的政治现实 ,但是 ,随着政治改革势头的逐步强化 ,权威政权主导下的有限民主乃是未来一定时期内的一种选择。

Democratization is a long and complicated historical course, during which the 'Middle East Exceptionalism' is not suited the actual conditions of the Middle Eastern Islamic countries. Democratic practices in these countries are still at an initial stage and somewhat lag behind. Such factors as the traditional Islamic political cultures, authoritarianism in the Middle Eastern countries, general level of the social economic development and external influences etc, all restrain the democratic process to different extent. Traditional model of political governance remains to be the political realities of the most countries in the Middle East. However, with the strengthening of the tendencies of the political reforms, limited democracy under the authoritarian regimes will be a choice during a particular period in the future.