皋兰县麦长管蚜的田间消长规律及预测模型

Occurrence regulation and forecast model of Macrosiphum avenae in wheat field in Gaolan county

根据皋兰县中堡村麦田的系统调查资料和县气象局的气象资料,对麦长管蚜的田间消长规律进行了分析并建立了发生期预测模型。分析表明麦长管蚜在田间的发生与小麦的生育期有密切的关系:小麦生育前期蚜量较少,随着小麦的生长蚜量逐渐增加,从小麦抽穗后蚜量急剧上升,到灌浆期达到高峰。并应用1981～2000年20年的平均温度、相对温湿系数建立了发生期的回归预测模型,对历史资料进行检查,符合率分别达95 % 以上。

Based on investigation data of wheat field and meteorological data in Gaolan county of Gansu,the occurrence regulation in field was analyzed and the prediction models of Macrosiphum avenae were established. The results showed that the regulation of growth and decline was closely related to the development stages of wheat plants: at the prophase stage of wheat, the population of aphid was small, but with the development of the wheat, the population became bigger. With emergence of the ear, the population changed rapidly and at the period of grouting, it got the peak period. According to the average data of temperature and humidity from 1981 to 2000, the regression equations for forecasting the peak occurrence period of Macrosiphum avenae were developed. The coincidence rate of the prediction model, by validation on the historical data, was above 95 %.