工业技术进步灰色量化分析及预测

The Grey Quantification Analyzing and Forecasting onIndustry Technique Advance

利用柯布—道格拉斯 (Cobb Douglas)生产函数对工业数据进行技术进步分析 ,得出工业技术进步发展速度和贡献值 .同时利用灰色模型GM( 1 ,1 )对工业技术进步的数据进行预测 ,并通过了后验误差检验 ,得出了与实际情况基本吻合的预测结果 .利用预测数据对我国 2 0 0 0年的工业技术进步进行分析 。

This paper analyses industry data in technological advancement by using Cobb Douglass producing function,and gets its contributory value and development speed.It also forecasts its data by a Gray Model GM(1 1),and inspects late errors through tests before obtaining a result coinciding with practice basically.And finally it makes analysis of industry technological advancement in China in 2000 by using the forecasting data,and puts forwards some advices.