数值预报产品在桂林暴雨预报中的应用研究

Application of Numerical Forecast Products in Storm Forecast in Guilin

利用1998～2002年4～7月间欧洲、日本,2002年5～7月我国数值预报产品进行统计分析,总结出以数值预报产品为主的暴雨预报模式指标。这一模式指标,为日常预报工作中以天气学预报为主转向以数值预报为主奠定良好基础,也为预报员提供客观简捷的预报方法。通过一年的试报探索和一年的实际业务应用,其预报准确率较为理想。

The statistics analysis by using numerical forecast products of European and Japanese during April ~ July from 1998 to 2002, and of Chinese during May ~ July in 2002 concludes the storm forecast mode index based on numerical forecast products, which lays a good foundation for transferring the daily forecast emphasis from synoptic meteorological forecast to numerical forecast, and provides a simple and objective forecast method for weather forecasters. The one-year trial forecasting and practical forecasting proves its satisfactory accuracy.