我国经济波动周期的测算与检验

The Business Cycle in China: Measurement and Examination

运用定量分析方法对我国改革开放以来的经济增长进行分析,发现其中确有一定的周期性,周期长度约为4～5年。同20世纪80年代相比,90年代以来的经济周期波动变缓。我们应深入认识经济周期波动的规律,制定相应的政策,以减少其危害程度。

It is a discovery that there are indeed some business cycles in our economic growth since the reform and open, after a measure and statistical analysis of the period. The length of the cycles is about 4 or 5 years. Comparing to the 1980th, fluctuations had become lesser in the 1990th. We should pay more attention to the law of economic fluctuations, and decrease their harm in our economic growth.