宏观经济过热的形成机理和判别标准

The Forming Process and the Judging Criterion of Economic Overheating

宏观经济过热与正常经济增长的区别在于增长是不是可持续的。正常经济增长的投资来源于储蓄率上升和自愿储蓄的增加;而导致宏观经济过热的投资来源于信用扩张所导致的挤占消费、强制储蓄。前者将带来可持续的经济增长,后者则将导致一个经济从繁荣到萧条的周期波动过程。目前,我国的投资膨胀、信用扩张和少数生产资料涨价并未达到导致强制储蓄挤占消费的地步,宏观经济并未过热。但不良资产的上升和外生因素引起的信用扩张失控仍有导致经济过热的风险,因此,应采取结构性政策,通过既鼓励又限制的财政政策和货币政策,一方面要保护正常的经济增长,另一方面也要防止宏观经济过热。

The difference between the economic overheating and the normal growing is whether the growth is sustainable. The investment of normal growth comes from voluntary saving, which may lead to sustainable growth. The investment of economic overheating comes from forced saving, which may lead to a business cycle from boom to depression. Chinese economy is not overheating because the investment does not exceed the saving and lead to the forced saving. But there still exists the overheating hazard because of the credit expansion, which demands the structural economic policy.