评价林业投资的实物期权方法

The Real Options Methods Used in Valuation of Forestry Investments

评价风险较高的林业投资,传统的净现值法(NPV)容易低估项目的价值,不能客观地对林业投资做出正确评价。林业项目的不确定性反映了林业投资具有一定的期权特性,因此本文基于实物期权的理论和方法,建立了林木采伐的实物期权决策模型,将林木收益问题当作一个实物期权问题处理,应用实物期权模型来决定林木最佳采伐时机。

Evaluating the forestry investments which have many uncertain factors,the traditional NPV underestimate the value of forestry investments.The uncertainty of forestry investments reflects that they have some real options characteristics.So in this paper,the theory of real options is used to model the optimal harvesting decision.It regards the forest revenue problem as a real options one,and applies the real options method to decide the optimal harvest occasion.