如何看待中国当前的贸易平衡问题

How to Regard China′s Current Trade Balance

本文考察了中国贸易平衡的历史演变,分析了其当前阶段的结构特点,以及决定这种贸易平衡变动的四个影响因素,即资源禀赋的变化、国内经济的周期波动、世界产业的动态转移、中国加入世贸组织的制度变迁。根据对这些因素的分析,作者认为当前出现的贸易逆差与中国经济目前的特点和发展阶段是一致的,贸易逆差在今后一段时期内可能经常出现,但中国不会出现长期持续的逆差。

This paper first examines the evolvement and current structure of China′s trade balance. Then it studies four factors that determine the alteration of trade balance: the variation of factor ratio, the periodic fluctuation of domestic economy, the dynamic transfer of world industry, the institutional transition after China′s entry into WTO. Based on the research, we conclude that current trade deficit is reasonable. China may see trade deficit sometimes in near future, but durative trade deficit should not occur.