WTO农业协定对主要成员农产品贸易影响的实证分析

Positive Analysis of Impacts of WTO Agricultural Agreement on Agricultural Trade of Major Members of WTO

从WTO成立前后对比角度 ,本文对美国、欧盟、凯恩斯集团等WTO主要成员的农产品贸易以及最不发达成员的粮食进口情况 ,采用计量模型等方法进行了实证分析。结果表明 ,WTO农业协定短期内没有对世界农产品贸易产生显著影响 ,其国际制度效果未达到WTO主要成员的预期 ,全球农业贸易保护的格局仍在延续。

With the comparison of the situations before and after WTO establishment,the paper positively analyzed the international trade of major WTO members such as USA,Europe Union and Cairns Group etc,and grain import of the least developed members by means of econometric models. The result shows that WTO Agricultural Agreement have not made prominent impacts on world trade of agricultural products in short term,its effects on international trade regime have been under the anticipation of major members of WTO,while the protection pattern of world agricultural trade still continues.