应用时间序列模型预测疟区疟疾发病率

Prediction of malaria incidence in malaria epidemic area with time series models

目的 :探讨应用时间序列ARMA模型进行疟区疟疾发病率预测的可行性 .方法 :应用SPSS1 1 .0软件对海南省万宁市 8个联防疟区 1 991 0 1 / 2 0 0 1 1 2的逐月发病率进行ARMA模型建模拟合 ,并用所得到的模型对 2 0 0 2年疟区逐月发病率进行预测 ,将预测值与实际值进行比较 .结果 :ARIMA(0 ,1 ,1 )× (0 ,1 ,1 ) 1 2模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的发病率序列 ,其对 2 0 0 2年各月发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势 .结论 :时间序列模型可以很好地模拟疟区疟疾发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势 ,并可用来对未来的疟疾发病率进行预测 。

AIM: To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the malaria incidence in malaria epidemic areas. METHODS: SPSS11.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the month malaria incidence in eight malaria epidemic areas in Wanning County, Hainan Province, from Jan. 1991 to Dec. 2001. Then the constructed model was used to predict the month incidence in 2002 and the prediction was compared with the actual incidence. RESULTS: ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous month incidence from Jan. 1991 to Dec. 2001, and the predicted month incidence in 2002 by the model was consistent with the actual incidence. CONCLUSION: The method of time series analysis can be used to fit exactly the changes of malaria incidence and to predict the incidence trend in future.